The eve of Obamacare, a showdown over a government shutdown, and the threat of a debt default all are ahead for investors. While those issues are rife with politics, each of them poses economic risks that can't be ignored.
The eve of Obamacare, a showdown over a government shutdown, and the threat of a debt default all are ahead for investors. While those issues are rife with politics, each of them poses economic risks that can’t be ignored.
The head wind of rising health care costs threaten to zap consumer spending even as broadening health insurance coverage brings with it the opportunity to provide a more sustainable health system. The beginning of open enrollment for the state health insurance exchanges under the Affordable Care Act is a massive, real-time economic experiment. The economic goal of having more Americans with health insurance is not controversial, but how it’s paid for is. And the money will come from someplace.
Meantime, the slowdown of government spending remains an economic drag. That’s not necessarily an argument for more. After all, corporate profits and the stock market have been setting records even as the sequestration cuts haven taken hold. But household income levels are stagnant. That may be part of the warning the Federal Reserve has been very clear about: “Fiscal policy continues to be an important restraint on (economic) growth.” There’s the direct impact from less spending, but more important is the lack of clarity and absence of a comprehensive strategy. While Congress dithers over spending compromises household prosperity withers.
These are preludes to the financial fight over borrowing. The nation’s credit limit is maxed out. Without Congress approving an increase to the debt ceiling, bills won’t get paid and the fiduciary reputation of America will get dinged. Again. There will be threats of a lower credit rating and higher interest rates. But the real risk of not raising the debt ceiling is the manifestation of the real and growing threat that political dysfunction costs us all.
ABOUT THE WRITER
Financial journalist Tom Hudson hosts “The Sunshine Economy” on WLRN-FM in Miami. He is the former co-anchor and managing editor of “Nightly Business Report” on public television. Follow him on Twitter @HudsonsView.
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